Well Ol’ DP caught some flack yesterday for some perceived negativity regarding our Boys in Blue. It’s not often I’m called a negative Nancy regarding my Royals, but this has been a frustrating season. You can look at our division and say we are five games back and be excited. Sure, it’s the best position we’ve been in since 2003 – which when you think about it is amazingly depressing. Let’s look further…
Games Back at June 27 in the season:
2011 – 10
2010 – 9.5
2009 – 9.5
2008 – 7
2007 – 13.5
2006 – 26.5
2005 – 25.5
2004 – 12
Obviously Allard Baird had us in a great spot with the roster he created for 04-07. Seriously, how were we not contracted? OK, so when you look at the above, you’d think every Royals fan would be kissing Dayton Moore’s feet right now. If you are content with just competing, I guess you should be. Coming off the 8 years above, maybe I should just be content with where we are at. However, I can’t get over this truly depressing starting rotation. Like hard to get out of bed in the morning when I think about the guys making up our MAJOR LEAGUE rotation. I just can’t sit back and let it go unchecked when fans are talking about winning a division when 3 of your 5 starters include Vin Mazzaro, Nate Adcock, Luis Mendoza, Everett Teaford, Wil Smith, or Jonathon Sanchez. Those guys have started 29 games this year and we are 12-17 in those games. The big problem though is that those same guys will start 53 of our final 89 games if nothing changes.
There are some other numbers working against the Royals. It is extremely difficult to win a division when you have a 12 game losing streak in a season. To overcome that you probably need to rip off a couple 6-7 game winning streaks to offset that. To win 6 or 7 straight with this rotation would be almost impossible. At the half way point on the year, our longest winning streak is four games. Further, the White Sox are on pace to win 86 games, which means we would have to go 53-36 to finish the season to catch them. That is a .595 winning percentage, which would be a 96-64 team over the course of a full season. I know we’re all excited we just swept the Rays (while skipping Price and Shields in the rotation mind you), but do you think our current roster is a 96-64 team? Cause that is exactly how they will have to play over the next 89 to win this thing. Don’t forget the pitchers I mentioned above…
I think our offensive struggles will improve with Perez and Cain back and Hosmer hopefully finding his stride. Wil Myers wouldn’t hurt either, but that is for another day. For the Royals to have ANY chance in hell for this season, Odorizzi needs to be up the day after the All-Star break and we need him to be a dependable MLB starter. Which would be asking a lot for a guy who started the year in AA. However, it is time for him to come up and get his feet wet, because at the very least – he will be needed for 2013.
Ok, so I just took a leak all over the fire some of you were starting for the 2nd half run. Now, like Godfather 3, I will get pulled right back in and give you a little ounce of hope I dug up. It’s regarding our friend Luke Hochevar. Apparently, he has “turned the corner” once again. If I had a nickel for every time I heard that I could play two games of Pac-Man. It seems like every time he rips off two good starts, Bob Dutton writes a fluff piece about how it has “clicked” for Luke. Listen, nothing will ever “click” for this simpleton. Listen to the man speak – he is an extremely unintelligent man. It’s painful, really. You can tell on the mound that it is only a matter of time before his brain gets in the way of his ability. You know the 6’5” 240 lb RHP who throws 96 with a plus breaking ball. Yeah, those guys typically have the ability to perform at the major league level. Unfortunately, this mental midget from the inbred University of Tennessee has been scuffling for years. However, I have one hope for a cure. Salvador Perez and all his glory. Observe.
Below you will find the OPS numbers against Luke Hochevar split out by his catcher:
.755 John Buck, 24 starts, 5.5 IP/start – 5.5 K/9
.783 Matt Treanor, 22 Starts, 6.2 IP/start – 4.5 K/9
.820 Miguel Olivo, 17 starts, 6.1 IP/start – 5.9 K/9
.785 Humberto Quintero, 14 starts, 5.5 IP/start – 6.9 K/9
.749 Jason Kendall, 13 starts, 6 IP/start – 6.5 K/9
.941 Brayan Pena, 11 starts, 4.7 IP/start – 7.7 K/9
.656 Salvador Perez, 8 starts, 6.8 IP/start – 8.2 K/9
OK, I have to start with the disclaimer of small sample size. Only 8 starts with Salvador means that this is not a conclusive experiment, but baby, I like the hypothesis. I didn’t use ERA, because who knows if his relievers let inherited runners score – that is out of Luke’s control. I just did the pure hitting performance against Luke split out by who was behind the dish. Kendall and Perez are both known for their excellent catching abilities, do you think it’s a coincidence that Luke’s best numbers are with the best game callers? Look how he does with hit first catchers like Olivo and Pena – rough. Here is my theory: Due to the fact that Luke is not as sharp between the ears, he really benefits from a smart catcher who can call the game for him. Tell him to never shake them off and trust them. That makes shit a lot easier for Luke. “Hey Meat, just nod at the sign and throw it to my glove.” Just like Crash Davis did with Nuke LaLoosh. Except ours is Luke LaDoosh.
Exit Question: Are you buying my theory or did I just go Bob Dutton all over your ass?
Very interesting piece, well done DP. When you put the numbers to it, it’s amazing to see how big of a difference Perez makes. I think he’s the most exciting part about this team. He’s young, very passionate and he’s under contract for awhile. I don’t know if the Royals have ever had a young catcher who was…you know…GOOD. I have a really good feeling the Royals aren’t going to win the division because Detroit is going to snap out of it and wake up and take it by storm. It’s fun to have somewhat of a winner in this town in July. Who cares if we are in a crappy division. I’ll take it. The fact that they are still in it is a miracle considering the losing streak. Usually at this point in the year, KC is counting down the days to Chiefs Training Camp.
QUESTION: What does GMDM do with Sanchez? HOw much longer is he going to be in our rotation? What do you do with him, release him? Hide him in the bullpen?
WARNING: MAY CAUSE WORK BONERS: Google Sanchez’s girlfriend Audris Rijo…wow…makes me hate that guy even more.
I would outright release him. He is a piece of shit who doesn’t care out there. Amazing that he doesn’t give a fuck in a contract year. OH wait, look at what he is banging. He’ll have made 13M in his career after this season and her waiting when you get home. I don’t think I would work hard either.
Royals winning 3 in a row is like the Chiefs winning the first quarter of the first game of the season. And that’s enough to get me excited. Bluuuuuu Chieeeeeeeeefs!
According to this, I’d put my money on Diet Pepsi but it feels so good right now having a decent team. Fuck the predictions, cum on Blue Chiefs!!!
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2012&i=1
Solid writeup DP unfortunately I do like HerbalRex and would love to spend an evening with you two talking baseball.
Mr. Maplewood, when will we see you in the above outfit?
So Royals need a long win streak and White Sux need a long losing streak. Then we’ll find the winner when they battle each other.
I love the Godfather III pulling me back in picture
I do have faith in DM calling up Odorizzi. His hand has been forced by all the injuries so he pretty much has no choice.
As for Teaford……he’s at least pitched in the Major’s so we somewhat know what he can/can’t do. Odorizzi on the other hand is a total wild card. He could come up and get rocked and then we are back to having a bunch of no-names comprise our 3-5 slots in the rotation.
I never said we have to win 96 games either. I was agreeing that we are NOT a 96 win club. However…..where we stand right now puts us in place to compete by going 49-40 the rest of the way. That doesn’t mean we have to play like a 96 win club. This means we have to play like a 49-40 club (89 wins if exrapolated over the entire season) finishing only 9 over the rest of the way, not 17. I do think we have potential to be an 89 win club even with our “best two” starters injured.
Also…..I don’t necessarily agree that Duffy was part of our best two starters. Duffy wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in his starts. Paulino would probalby qualify as on of our best two though.
We all knew starting pitching was going to be our achilles heal so this comes as no surprise to anyone. Offense was supposed to carry us through those struggles and they’ve faltered greatly to this point but we are still within striking distance. Bats warm up and support this below average staff and we can still make a push.
That 9-13 record in the central is misleading as 7 of those losses came against CLE and DET in the midst of our 12 game streak. We are a much improved club from that debacle in April.
As for CWS….Youk doesn’t scare me and neither does Dunn. I know Dunn has some big power numbers but the guy is hitting somewhere in the low .200′s. They are an aging squad and I foresee some injury problems or just a general lack of production when they have to go up against the West and the East during the remaining parts of their schedule. Their staff is solid, that is for sure. Peavy is having a comeback player of the year type season but he’s been a little more shaky in the Summer months than he was in the early part of the season. Plus the Royals just play well at Cellular Field (or whatever it’s called these days). I just don’t see them running away with this thing by any means.
I guess it just boils down to us being on different ends of the spectrum here DP. You are seeing the glass as half empty while I’m seeing it as half full.
My question back to you is: Do you not think we can hang with our own division opponents? We have 49 left against the Central (w/ more than 25% – 13 to be exact – against the worst team in the division). No reason not be optimistic even with the starting pitching we have.
I could be dead wrong and maybe we end up losing 90 games but it just doesn’t “feel” like that type of team this year. Before anyone gets too excited (myself included) we simply need to get back to .500. If that happens I could see you changing your tune come August.
-My Two Cents
I don’t think 83 wins gets you a division.
Paulino was our best pitcher this year and it’s not even close. I’d take Duffy over Chen.
Dunn doesn’t scare you? I want to live in that universe. One of the best hitters in this era. Stop looking at batting average.
Your answer: I don’t think it’s impossible to hang with our division, but I think it’s unlikely that we will because of our rotation. Will I be cheering my dick off for my team – absoluetly and pathetically. I just feel like a little dose of reality would be good for some people’s sanity.
Odorizzi, Myers, Hosmer – those three kids will have to be BIG pieces to us making a legitimate run. No more projects/Mendoza’s, we need real talent to preform at a high level, and we need it now.
I think more people are down and out on this team than thinking we have a chance. It has been engraved into our fan base via years of futility. I’d say more people are on your side of the argument so maybe I’m the one that needs a dose of reality.
Paulino was lights out but that is gone. Possibly gone forever if he can’t regain form post Tommy John surgery.
Duffy has more promise than Chen but Chen get’s results that Duffy has yet to achieve. I’d rather have Duffy too but Chen is not the problem in our rotation. Sad to say but he is the anchor.
Agreed that “the kids” will have to be a big piece for us to make a division run. Hos needs to get back to form. Moose is proving he can do it. Myers and Odorizzi are both TBD.
Nice back and forth today. I like getting after it with educated fans.
PS: Royals will win the season series against the Sox, mark it.
Great write-up DP…would much rather tune into you than the WonderDawg for Royals Broadcasts.
Nice write up DP – expected nothing less. For what it’s worth, I can trace my affinity for garter belts, stockings and dusty old coogs back to this movie.
I agree it is going to take a lot to finish this off. Like everyone else, my year-end assessment of this team/season will depend a lot on Odorizzi and Myers big league development this year.
Nice piece. I buy into the theory of Perez helping the “simpleton”. It allows Luke the Nuke to go out and just throw w/o worrying about what he wants to throw.
As for the beginning of your article I have to counter:
1. Even though Odorizzi is unproven his call up (which will happen after the All-Star break) is going to help this rotation. Even if it’s just to eat some innings and keep guys like Mazzaro and Adcock from taking the hill.
2. I agree we have a bunch of shitkickers going out on the mound. Especially Sanchez and Mazzaro. However, Teaford did well last year. 2-1 in 44 IP (3 starts), 3.27 ERA, 28K’s/14BB’s and a 1.14 WHIP. His two starts this year haven’t been dynamite but since he got over the injury and built himself back up in AAA he’s been better. I would rather see him going out there every 5th day then Sanchez (who doesn’t even want to be here).
3. The Royals aren’t a 96-64 squad this year and the reason for that is the 12 game losing streak. It will be amazingly hard to come back from that but we are fighting and fighting well. 50-40 that I pointed out yesterday isn’t out of the realm of possibilities for this team even with the shit rotation we currently have going.
4. Speaking of the rotation. Chen, Hochevar, Odorizzi, Teaford and Mendoza doesn’t sound too horrific. Is it good…not really. The thing we have to counter with is a strong offense. We haven’t been the offensive club I thought we would to this point in the year but there are signs of us turning it around at the plate.
5. Most importantly. OUR DIVISION SUCKS BALLS! Chicago is going to fall off. They would essentially be the same team as the Royals but instead of a 12 game losing streak they somehow won 10 straight (pure luck). Cleveland is already back to .500 and will finish the season with less than 80 wins. Minnesota is in the shitter again and we MUST capitalize when playing them. And Detroit is struggling. I still think Detroit is the front-runner though. Even with their rough start they could probably manage 83-85 wins.
6. 85 wins is probably the magic number in this division. Whoever gets there is likely to be the AL Central winner. The good news for the Royals is we have A LOT of games to play against the ALC. Let’s look at each teams remaining games against the other divisions:
CWS has played 29 against the ALC but only 14 against the ALW and ALE
CLE has played 32 against the ALC, 10 against the ALE and 14 against the ALW
DET has played 24 against the ALC, 16 vs. the ALE and 17 vs. the ALW
MINN has played 21 against the ALC, 17 vs. the ALE and 18 vs. ALW
KC has played 22 against the ALC, 22 vs. the ALE and 11 vs. the ALW (which we’ve owned thus far).
My point to all of this is we have played the least amount of games in our own division (which we stack up nicely against), the MOST against the best division in baseball and still have quite a few to go against the beatable West considering we haven’t even seen Seattle yet this year (I don’t think).
To me this says teams like Chicago and Cleveland will start to fall off going up against superior opponents while the Royals and Tigers will make up ground and end up battling for the division.
The key to the rest of the season is to beat the teams in our own division. If we can do that, we can win this fucking thing.
Mullet, out!
1. So you’re just trusting DM to call up Odorizzi. I mentioned later it is a MUST if we want to compete, but I have no clue if DM will actually do it. He very well may not. Until he does, I stand by my argument that we are hopeless with current rejects.
2. So you’re hinging a huge IF on Everett James Teaford being a key piece. I stand by my concerns. Also, Sanchez ain’t going anywhere. Which is a disgrace on DM’s part.
3. I’m not saying we have to win 96, I said we have to play like a 96 win team over the next 89. You think we’ll play 17 games over from here on out? I don’t. We may disagree on the magic number, but we will have to play seriously good baseball down the stretch with our two best pitchers injured.
4. Yes, it’s better. IF Odorizzi comes up and IF Sanchez is released.
5. Chicago just picked up Youk. They have Dunn and Konerko playing amazing. Rios and A.J. playing well too. They have the best 1-2 in the division in Peavy, Sale. (We don’t even have a 2!) They aren’t going anywhere in my opinion. Why do you assume they’ll breakdown?
6. Our worst record is against the Central. We’re 9-13. So let’s hope something changes if that is where we are supposed to make hay.